实现2035年发展目标的潜在增长率*

党的十九届五中全会提出了到2035年人均GDP达到中等发达国家水平的远景目标，因此测算和回答能否和如何如期实现该目标，对于我国实现第二个百年奋斗目标和坚持“四个自信”具有重要的意义。为此，本文根据跨越和陷入“中等收入陷阱”经济体的发展经验，对2021—2035年我国潜在增长率变化进行了测算。一是参照跨越和陷入“中等收入陷阱”经济体在我国相同发展阶段时各主要生产要素的变化，模拟设定我国未来各主要生产要素的增长率；二是通过运用附加人力资本的增长核算模型测算基准、乐观和悲观三种不同情境下未来我国经济的潜在增长率，验证我国2035年发展目标实现的可能性；三是依据主要要素对潜在增长率的贡献度，提出我国如期实现2035年发展目标的相应政策建议。     

Dynamics of the Market for Corporate Tax‐Avoidance Advice*

This paper addresses the debate over aggressive tax‐planning models and analyzes the role of tax consultants. It focuses on the dynamic interaction between innovation and imitation of aggressive tax‐planning products and governmental tax regulation, and it highlights the importance of the length of regulatory lag in comparison with the time it takes the tax‐consulting industry to imitate newly innovated tax‐avoidance products. It reveals an alignment of interests between highly innovative tax‐consulting firms and the governmental tax legislator/regulator. The conclusions are also relevant for the policy debate on mandatory disclosure rules about aggressive tax‐planning models.     

纳税信用评级结果披露与研发投入

以纳税信用评级披露作为一个天然外生冲击,并基于2013—2016年1214家A股上市公司的微观数据构造准自然实验,使用双重差分法系统评估纳税信用评级结果披露对上市公司研发投入的影响。结果发现:纳税信用评级结果披露显著增加了上市公司的研发投入。基于PSM-DID方法的估计结果与上述结论无明显差异。稳健性检验也表明上述结论的正确性。机制检验表明,纳税信用评级结果披露通过降低企业的融资约束,进而促进企业增加研发投入。此外,分样本回归发现纳税信用评级结果披露只能对中小型企业和民营企业的研发投入产生促进作用。     

农地发展权流出、资本回流与区域经济增长*——基于重庆市的实证研究

[目的]以重庆市为研究区域,以农地发展权资本化的地票指标为研究对象,从理论和实证层面探讨农地发展权交易与资本要素的城乡互动关系及其对区域经济增长的影响,为进一步优化农地发展权交易政策、促进区域均衡发展提供相关建议。[方法]基于2008—2017年城乡统筹改革试验区重庆市地票指标交易的面板数据,运用要素禀赋理论和差分GMM模型从理论和实证层面分析农地发展权流出区土地与资本要素的互动关系及其对区域经济增长的影响。[结果]基于区域间资源禀赋的差异及要素相对价格的分化,在市场机制作用下,农地发展权指标将以配置效率优化为导向在不同区域间自由流动。[结论]短期内,由于资本约束,流出农地发展权的区域其经济增长会受到抑制;而当农地发展权指标资本化后,流出区获得了较为稀缺的货币资本,农地发展权流出将显著促进地方经济增长;同时,在研究时期内,由于农地发展权市场交易机制的构建,重庆市地方经济增长存在显著的收敛效应,区域间经济发展差距将会逐步缩小。     

Environmental regulations in private and mixed duopolies: Taxes on emissions versus green R&D subsidies

In this article, we compare two kinds of environmental regulations—emissions taxes and green R&D subsidies—in private and mixed-duopoly markets in the presence of R&D spillovers. We show that a green R&D subsidy is better (worse) than an emissions tax when the green R&D is efficient (inefficient), irrespective of R&D spillovers, whereas the existence of a publicly owned firm encourages the government to adopt a subsidy policy. We also show that the optimal policy choice depends on R&D efficiency and spillovers. In particular, when green R&D is inefficient and the spillover rate is low (high), the government should choose an emissions tax and (not) privatize the state-owned firm. When green R&D is efficient, however, an R&D subsidy is better, but a privatization policy is not desirable for society, irrespective of spillovers.     

The finance-growth nexus: The role of banks

We contribute to the finance-growth nexus literature by showing that credit origin, bank ownership, type of credit, and bank type matter in economic growth. We use a unique dataset covering 5555 cities in Brazil, with granular information on credit characteristics. We find that non-earmarked credit to the corporate sector is associated with municipal economic growth more strongly than earmarked credit, despite the increase in the relevance of the latter after the global financial crisis. We also find that the type of credit—whether the loans are general purpose or for a specific purpose—is associated with economic growth in different ways. Overall, credit provided to the corporate sector by domestic private banks is correlated with higher economic growth rates. In contrast, the relationship between credit from state-owned banks and economic growth becomes statistically significant only after the crisis. Although we follow the finance-growth literature in our empirical exercises using internal instruments in generalized method of moments (GMM) estimations, we also conduct robustness tests using two additional external instruments: the number of complaints filed against each bank and local credit accessibility. Our findings with external instruments are the same with respect to the use of traditional internal instruments in GMM estimations.     

Real income convergence and the patterns of financial integration in the EU

We analyse real income convergence among the EU28 countries throughout 1995–2017 and the relationship with the convergence patterns of financial systems. We apply the nonlinear latent factor model of Phillips and Sul (2007, 2009) to real incomes and the IMF financial development indices for financial markets and financial institutions (Svirydzenka, 2016), and identify convergence clubs endogenously. We have several results. First, income disparities narrowed significantly over the last twenty years; yet, the growth convergence process lost momentum triggered by the global financial crisis and countries legacies shaped up asymmetries that have crystallised. Second, countries' financial systems exhibit high fragmentation, especially for financial markets, with the new EU member states at a lower financial development, confirming the existence of a two-tier Europe. Overall, the convergence patterns for real incomes and financial development are strongly correlated. Finally, the financial structure matters and market-oriented economies feature higher long-run growth, indicating the need to implement pan-European policy actions that increase the opportunities of risk diversification, enhance capital raising and channel large-scale financing to firms.     

欧盟视阈下在线平台中个人数据的增值税处理

近年来,在线平台的迅猛发展推动了全球经济数字化加速转型,但同时也引发了包括增值税政策适用在内的诸多挑战.通过研究《欧盟增值税指令》和欧州法院的判例法,以及分析个人数据与在线平台运行之间的关系可以推断出,个人数据是在线平台提供访问服务构成的增值税应税范围内的供应,且与消费者是否向在线平台支付金钱形式的对价无关.在实践中,使用客观价值方法来确定在线服务供应的应税金额存在实际困难,而使用直接联系标准解决易货交易问题,会导致增值税税基在本质上得到扩张.因此,建议当前不要将在线平台访问服务的供应视为一项应税交易.此外,对于商家为获得消费者数据而向平台付款的情形,因其不符合直接联系标准,也不应被视为服务对价.     

Tax evasion by tax deferment: Sham litigation with an informal credit market

We show theoretically how tax evasion is facilitated by informal credit market through tax deferment. Our model is empirically based. Using sham litigation, tax evaders earn a higher rate of return than the stipulated penalty rate for tax evasion while the government loses tax revenue. We propose an upfront part–payment of the disputed amount of tax as a solution to the form of tax evasion we describe.     

财政政策与货币政策的动态调控效应*——基于时变参数向量自回归模型的检验

本文廓清了财政政策与货币政策搭配动态调控宏观经济的机理，揭示了两者协调影响经济的“黑箱”机制及其在经济不同阶段的搭配方式；运用中国2004—2019年的经济季度数据，构建TVP SV VAR模型探究两类政策对宏观经济的调控效应。研究发现：财政政策与货币政策共同把控流动性“闸门”实现互动协调；财政政策搭配货币政策具有时变性，在整体上“同向发力”推动经济发展；两类政策对产出的影响并非始终如理论一致，在结构层面仍有优化靶向性操作的余地。